176
FXUS64 KLUB 162315
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE FAR SW PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES SEESAW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
INCLUDING LOWS IN THE 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME LOCALES.
- ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE GREATEST FORCING WILL REMAIN
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH, THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH THE
TIMING OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SW
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THE CURRENT POPS GENERALLY
REFLECT THE EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS, WHICH IS QUITE NARROW
AND REFLECTS MOST OF THE MODELS IN TERMS OF WHERE THEY ARE PLACING
ANY QPF. IN ANY CASE, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. THE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
DEEPEN OVER EASTERN CO AND BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ON THE
CAPROCK. THESE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO
60. UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING ABOUT
ANOTHER WARM DAY FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH MAY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY LATE-AFTERNOON, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS EXTENDED FORECAST INVOLVED BOOSTING
WESTERLY WINDS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND MONDAY WHICH LEADS TO AN
ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT. OTHERWISE, WE'LL BE CONTENDING WITH A
PROGRESSIVE, SEMI-ZONAL FLOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK PUNCUATED BY SOME LEGITIMATE COLD FRONTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A DRYLINE OFF THE CAPROCK AT THIS TIME MAY
RETREAT A FEW COUNTIES WEST AFTER SUNSET IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH,
BUT WITH ONLY MEAGER FORCING AND DIMINISHING ASCENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE BY THIS TIME WE DON'T SEE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. ONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS EXISTS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE NEAR A
MODEST TRIPLE POINT WITH A COLD FRONT NUDGING SOUTH. IF STORMS CAN
INITIATE HERE OVERNIGHT, THEY WON'T LINGER IN OUR AREA VERY LONG AS
30-40 KNOTS OF SW STEERING FLOW WOULD SWIFTLY KICK THESE OUT OF THE
AREA. THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY
AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ARRIVES WITH WHAT IS NOW PROGGED TO BE
MORE ROBUST HEIGHT FALLS (60 METERS IN 12 HOURS AT 500 MB). THE NAM
IS A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS ENERGY AND WILL BE DISMISSED IN FAVOR OF
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND CAMS - MOST OF WHICH FEATURE TOP-DOWN
SATURATION ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BY SATURDAY MORNING COMPLETE WITH
VIRGA AND PERHAPS SHOWERS IF THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WEST OF THE
DRYLINE CAN BE OVERCOME. OPTED TO KEEP POPS SILENT WITH THIS
FORECAST, THOUGH SOME MORNING CLOUDS WERE INSERTED OVER THE NBM'S
CLEAR SKIES. ONCE THIS TROUGH PASSES AND SWEEPS THE DRYLINE EAST BY
MIDDAY, DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S WHILE FOSTERING DEEPER
MIXING INTO 15-25 KNOTS OF HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT. ALONG WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS, LOW RHS AND DRYING FUELS (WORST IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS) AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THESE BREEZY WNW WINDS COLLAPSE SATURDAY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT DIPS SOUTH AHEAD OF STEADY NNE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A
FAVORABLY-TIMED SURFACE HIGH IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD CRATER LOWS NEARBY IN THE MID/UPPER
30S BEFORE THIS DRY AIR QUICKLY WARMS INTO THE 70S BY THE
AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S COOL SURFACE RIDGING, LEE TROUGHING SHARPENS
UNDER DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WHILE PROMOTING 20 TO 25 MPH SW WINDS
AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY. NBM'S TOASTY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S LOOK
GOOD GIVEN THIS DRY AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, SO ANOTHER
ELEVATED (BORDERLINE CRITICAL) FIRE THREAT SEEMS LEGIT FOR
MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH ZIPPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OUR WAY BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
LOOK TO FAIR NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE BEFORE
MODERATING THEREAFTER IN SOUTHERLY BREEZES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...07
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