222
FXUS64 KLUB 170543
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1243 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- QUICK-HITTING SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY,
WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEAMPLIFY, AS THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
WITH ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE NARROW
RIBBON OF MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONGRUENT WITH THE POSITION OF
THE MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST, WITH ONLY A SMALL,
COLLAPSING RAIN SHOWER MOVING INTO THE CWA. FARTHER NORTHWEST, A PV
ANOMALY EMANATING FROM THE EXIT-REGION OF THE QUASI-ZONAL EXTENSION
OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC JET STREAM HAS PROPAGATED SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THE POSITIVELY-TILTED FAILED TURRETS TROUGH, AND IS
CURRENTLY PIVOTING OVER DEATH VALLEY. AS THE NORTHERN-STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO MANITOBA THIS EVENING, THE
AFOREMENTIONED PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A COMPACT
VORTICITY LOBE AND BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEVELOPING BASAL,
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PIVOT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN EJECT
EASTWARD QUICKLY, AND PIVOT OVER THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND CLEAR EAST OF THE CWA MID-DAY SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EDGE OF
THE MESCALERO ESCARPMENT AND CONNECTS TO A LEE CYCLONE ROTATING NEAR
LAA. EARLIER, THERE WAS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE BRANCHING SOUTHWARD IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL MOIST SECTOR, BUT IT HAS SINCE BEEN OVERTAKEN BY THE
FRONT, AS EVIDENT ON WTM DATA. BREEZY, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
REMAIN INTACT DUE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CWA AND STALLS
NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN BACKED TO THE SOUTH. FARTHER NORTH, THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW NEAR LAA, BUT MAINTAINS ITS ANAFRONTAL PROPERTIES AND
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PH BY THE LATE-MORNING HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE TRIPLE POINT ANCHORING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TX PH THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY EVEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PACIFIC
COLD FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR
THE NM STATE LINE, AND INTO THE UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS EVEN LOWER 90S
IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED FROM THE NBM,
AND ALIGN WITH THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT (PREFERABLY CONSSHORT), WHICH
PROVIDES A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DEEP, POST-FRONTAL MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES FOR HIGH-BASED STORMS
WILL BE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PH, WHERE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST. OTHERWISE,
PARALLEL MOVEMENT OF PARCELS IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR RELATIVE TO THE
POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL RESULT IN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OF
PARCELS, WITH A COUPLE OF ORPHAN ANVILS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN THESE LOCALES
WILL END FOLLOWING THE CESSATION OF VERTICAL MIXING.
LATER TONIGHT, THE COMPACT VORTICITY LOBE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE AND BASAL, SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WILL ROTATE OVER W TX, AS
THE TROUGH EJECTS QUICKLY TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A MID-LEVEL
CLUSTER OF ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE CWA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY, WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINING DRY. NBM POPS WERE
TWEAKED AND SLIGHTLY EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE VORTICITY LOBE AS IT
ROTATES OVER THE REGION. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS
SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS, WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING INCREASINGLY ISOLATED WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT OVER THE TX PH. SHALLOW UPDRAFTS WILL KEEP
ANY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL LIMITED, AND WHILE A FLASH OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, MAINLY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT FINALLY CLEARING EAST OF THE CWA BENEATH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PRESSURE TENDENCIES WILL BE SLOW
STABILIZE, AS THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE GENERATED FROM THE STEEP,
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS IS MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE
EVENTUAL PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY,
WHICH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WERE RAISED AND DEWPOINTS
WERE LOWERED TO ALIGN WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, WHICH BETTER
REFLECTS THE VERY DRY AND DEEPLY-MIXED, POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
COMPARED TO THE NBM. A LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK MAY
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TEMPORARILY WHILE VEERING POLEWARD FROM THE ARRIVAL OF A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH.
THEREAFTER, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WITH A CP AIRMASS TRAILING
BEHIND, WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE CWA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINDS WERE RAISED ABOVE THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND ALIGNED WITH THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE GIVEN
AN EXPECTATION FOR AN EPHEMERAL SPIKE IN PRESSURE TENDENCIES
FOLLOWING THE STEEPLY SLOPED FRONT. BRISK, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 MPH, WILL OCCUR DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY AND
PERSISTENT CAA THAT WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY WILL RESULT IN CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED
FROM THE NBM, AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS, WHERE LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ARE
FORECAST. FROST, OR POSSIBLY EVEN THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON,
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF MULESHOE WHERE TERRAIN-INDUCED
DRAINAGES ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE SURFACE HIGH ROTATES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL N TX BENEATH THE SEMI-PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AS GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR,
WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG, LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS. WINDS WERE RAISED
TO ALIGN WITH THE MEX/ECX GUIDANCE, WHICH IS ON THE UPPER-BOUND OF
THE NWP GUIDANCE AND APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY, WITH LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WESTERLY WINDS BENEATH THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ECLIPSING THE CWA WILL
RESULT IN HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS BREACHING 90 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL WITH PROGRESSIVE
FLOW PATTERNS, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BRISK WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE
AGAIN FORECAST BY TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS RETURNING NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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