876
FXUS64 KLUB 172314
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- QUICK-HITTING SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY,
WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TODAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S ALONG WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN ELONGATED POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED VORTICITY/MID-LEVEL FORCING IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS. CAMS REMAIN
MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING ASSOCIATED QPF IN THE PVA REGION, WHICH WOULD
TEND TO BE FAVORED IN THIS SETUP AS OPPOSED TO THE LARGER-SCALE
MODELS. NBM DID CATCH UP A BIT, HOWEVER POPS HAVE STILL BEEN
SLIGHTLY INCREASED AND PULLED BACK FARTHER WEST. GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY, THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART AND MUCH OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER THE NOON HOUR WITH
SKIES CLEARING THEREAFTER. THESE SHOULD ALSO MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT
YIELD ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS, ALTHOUGH AS ALWAYS LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY AND MAY FALL FASTER IN THE EVENING DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH. COMPRESSION
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE COOLEST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL MOVE INTO THE FA SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT FROM THE NORTH. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY, AND WHERE, THE SURFACE HIGH SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
SOONER THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY, THE
COOLER THE TEMPERATURES. AS OF CURRENT, OUR NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES ARE FAVORED WITH MORNING LOWS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH LOW TEMPS AND WAS REFLECTED BY LOWERING SUNDAY'S LOWS
FROM THE NBM. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS FROM THE LEE
TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER SUNDAY. FIRE DANGER
WILL HELP BE OFFSET SOME BY THE COOLER HIGH TEMPS. SOLID ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER WILL BE MORE LIKELY MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT, DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S/LOW
90S AND 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH FOR MANY AREAS ON THE CAPROCK.
THE WARM TEMPS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS THE COLD FRONT COOLS HIGHS BACK
TO THE 70S TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION BY
MID WEEK AND WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
SHORTWAVE/LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE TRYING TO
BRING PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THESE SYSTEMS
ARE DRY FOR THE FA MORE TIMES THAN NOT, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY ARE
FAST MOVING WITH ANYTHING OTHER THAN A NEGATIVE TILT (A NEUTRAL TILT
IS CURRENTLY PROGGED).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR WITH A ROUND OF SHRA (A FEW TS ARE POSSIBLE) ARRIVING BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND EXITING AFTER A COUPLE HOURS OR SO. WNW WINDS WILL
TURN BREEZY BY MIDDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT ALL
TERMINALS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...93
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