896
FXUS64 KLUB 180531
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1231 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
- STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY,
WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
IT WILL BE A BUSY SATURDAY WEATHER WISE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SOME SMALL ECHOES JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES OVER THE REGION. MODELS
INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA AND
EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE TRACKING EAST, EXITING THE FA AROUND
NOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WE
WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA AND UPPER 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
A SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
WILL SWING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WILL WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS, DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S,
AND MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE COOLEST WE'VE SEEN THIS SEASON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MILD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD, MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. A
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
SADLY DO NOT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST
AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL (~15 DEGREES)
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH MID 80S TO MID 90S. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
THE FROPA MONDAY WILL DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
CAPROCK TO 30S OFF THE CAPROCK. THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS,
WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW DEWPOINTS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY. LUCKILY, THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY TUESDAY, HOWEVER THIS
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD RETURN THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES WITH MODELS INDICATING AN UPPER LOW
WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE
CLIPPING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MID SATURDAY
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15-20KT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS AGAIN
TO THE NORTH.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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