104
FXUS64 KLUB 182325
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FOR
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SHOWERS AND THUDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS A POTENT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAS QUICKLY DEPARTED OFF TO THE EAST. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE NW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 80S FOR MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY OFF
THE CAPROCK. WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE TEENS, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH,
BUT CONTINUE TO VEER TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COOLER, DRY AIR COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL HELP BRING ABOUT COOLEST NIGHT IN SOME TIME, WITH LOWS
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE FAR SW PANHANDLE.
A PLEASANT SUNDAY IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH
IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-
TO-UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST CAUSING THE
USUAL LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EASTWARD, GUSTY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA ON ITS SOUTH SIDE. AS OF NOW, GUSTS COULD
POTENTIALLY REACH THE 30 MPH AND HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM
NBM. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUING,
WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 90S FOR
MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK. AS SUCH, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO
NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES,
BRINGING TUESDAY'S HIGHS DOWN BY 10-15 DEGREES AND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND RISING HEIGHTS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE BRING AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S. THURSDAY WILL SEE THE NEXT
MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. WHILE IT REMAINS TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE THE FINER DETAILS,
IT APPEARS HIGHEST POPS WOULD BE OFF THE CAPROCK AS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW BECOMES OCCLUDED. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER AND
DRIER DAYS UNDER A TRAILING RIDGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR WITH GUSTY N WINDS TAPERING BY 8 PM, THEN VEERING SW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS. EARLIER POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS OVERNIGHT HAS SINCE IMPROVED SO MENTION WAS REMOVED.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93
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