276
FXUS64 KLUB 191120
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY.
- BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
MONDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
TODAY SHOULD BE A NICE AND QUIET DAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT THAT TRACKED THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED AND
SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
ALLOW DECREASE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
WITH SOME AREAS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE REACHING
THE UPPER 30S DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO, TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY THAN WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. MILD AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE ACCOMPANYING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE LOW.
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE LEE LOW WILL
BRING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NBM
CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
THEREFORE WINDS WERE UPPED WITH NBM90TH WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HIGHS. THE
CURRENT RECORD FOR KLBB IS 93 DEGREES SET IN 2012 AND KCDS IS 95 SET
IN 2005. HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTED FOR KLBB AND KCDS ARE 91 AND
94, RESPECTIVELY. DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
THE 20S ON THE CAPROCK AND 30S OFF THE CAPROCK. ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY WINDS, HOT
TEMPERATURES, AND MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE TEENS.
BREEZY WINDS AND RECORDING BREAKING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY EVENING WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL BY MID-WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER TEXAS WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE CLIPPING OUR
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
WILL SWING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING MOSTLY OFF THE CAPROCK. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR ALL TAF
SITES. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND
15KT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15KT AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXITS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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