863
FXUS64 KLUB 191714
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES (NEAR AVERAGE) RETURN TUESDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
- LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES (AROUND 20%) VISIT THE REGION ON
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A PLEASANT REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED, WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS MORE SEASONAL BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE MID 70S. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR SW PANHANDLE BETWEEN A
CLOSED SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE ROCKIES. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR WARMER LOWS THAN LAST NIGHT, RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY. GIVEN THE DUE
WESTERLY COMPONENT AND RESULTANT DOWNSLOPING, TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, REACHING THE LOW-TO-MID 90S EAST
OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR. ALONG WITH HUMIDITY FALLING TO NEAR 10%,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY, PARTICULARLY OFF THE
CAPROCK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHEASTWARD BY EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL SUPPLY A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE FROPA WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL CARRY IN COOLER
AIR. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, AS A SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS FOR
A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN THIS, WE HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES BELOW THE NBM TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S AGAIN. A FINE DAY WILL FOLLOW WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS, FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST
(WHICH IS AROUND AVERAGE).
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO MILDER/WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY RETURNING MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. THE WARMING
TREND WILL PERSIST ONE MORE DAY, THOUGH IT WILL COME WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND EVEN LOW (AROUND 20%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE. IN ADDITION TO IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 50S), THE STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SPINNING WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
APPROACH VIA THE FOUR CORNERS ON THURSDAY, LIKELY EMERGING OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT A GREAT TRAJECTORY
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE SOUTH PLAINS, THIS SYSTEM WILL
CARRY ENOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IT MAY SQUEEZE OUT A
LITTLE RAIN ON THURSDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY COULD EVEN SUPPORT A
LITTLE THUNDER. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (ALBEIT ONLY 25-30%) WILL
OCCUR OFF THE CAPROCK THURSDAY EVENING. THE NBM HANGS ON TO SLIM
RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY, THOUGH IF THE
RECENT MEDIUM RANGE NWP ARE CORRECT, THE RAIN CHANCES MAY SHIFT
EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS, THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH, DROPPING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. MILDER/WARMER AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
BREEZY SW WINDS GENERALLY NEAR 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. VFR WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...19
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