837
FXUS64 KLUB 201109
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
- COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING WILL BRING SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE NICE, COOLER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AS TODAY
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR RECORD BREAKING
HIGHS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE ROCKIES CREATING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW EARLY
THIS MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME BREEZY.
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL WARM HIGHS TODAY TO POSSIBLE RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO UPPER 90S OVER SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY FOR KLBB IS 93 SET IN 2012 AND
KCDS IS 95 SET IN 2007. THE HIGHS FORECAST FOR KLBB AND KCDS ARE 91
AND 94, RESPECTIVELY. BREEZY WINDS, HOT TEMPERATURES, AND RH VALUES
AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE INTERRUPTED AS A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET, BUT
COOL NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DROPPING LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING WILL BRING A PLEASANT AND COOLER
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY, HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS AS A SURFACE
HIGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SADLY, THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST LONG. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION BY MID-WEEK, WARMING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY AND SWING
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGING THE THE
SOUTH. ON THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW WILL SWING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN TO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S TO START
OFF THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS ALLOWED LOCAL
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK TO REACH 50-55KT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. SOME
OF THESE WINDS WILL TRANSFER DOWN TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE
PROVIDING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BUT WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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