080
FXUS64 KLUB 202311
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
611 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 602 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
- WARM, DRY, AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AND
PERSIST OFF THE CAPROCK INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
WARM, DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS (AND
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER) ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA AS
OF 17Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS, SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30 MPH, CURRENTLY
SPAN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON, BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR
TEXLINE TO FRITCH TO PAMPA AND MIAMI AT 17Z, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD, ENTERING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND 20Z, THEN
BACKDOORING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS A FROPA IN LUBBOCK AROUND 01Z,
WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS BY 04-05Z. A
PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT,
ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR. AFTER EXPERIENCING HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WHERE THE WINDS DIMINISH THE MOST TOWARD
MORNING, ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS, LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS AND BOUNTIFUL SUNSHINE, BUT HIGHS "ONLY" NEAR
AVERAGE, IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, THANKS TO A COOL SURFACE HIGH
TRAVERSING THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND WEAK TROUGHING BEGINS TO UNFOLD IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. CONCURRENTLY, THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING OUT
WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BE ACCELERATING EAST-
NORTHEAST AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
TRAVERSING THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE CLOSER OF THE TWO SYSTEMS IS
PROGGED TO COME ASHORE SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
CONTINUE STEADILY EASTWARD, PASSING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE EMERGING ABOVE THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN
24 HOURS AGO, THOUGH THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS BY TO
OUR NORTH, ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
PROLONGED SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-UPPER LOW
WILL SECURE A RETURN OF MILDER/WARMER WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK, WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER, IT WILL CARRY IMPROVED
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL IMPROVE, FROM WEST-TO EAST, ON THURSDAY AS THE
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE DEEPENS. IN FACT, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
PAINTS ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDRED TO 1000+ J/KG OF CAPE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUS, A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A DECENT CAP IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER THAT MAY
LIMIT/INHIBIT THE AMOUNT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS VERIFY, THE MOISTURE MAY HOLD ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING DRY SLOT,
WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING LOW POPS THERE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THEREAFTER, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ONLY MINOR COOLING ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS HIGHS
DIPPING INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH
REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THOUGH THIS EVENING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. VFR WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...19
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