371
FXUS64 KLUB 210631
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
131 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 131 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE REGION.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AND
PERSIST OFF THE CAPROCK INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
CURRENT KLBB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS DEPARTED OUR
REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SEEING LOW IN
THE UPPER 30S. FORTUNATELY, THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM
YESTERDAY DO NOT CONTINUE INTO TODAY. IT WILL BE A NICE AND PLEASANT
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION AND A LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
REGION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
SADLY, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CONTINUE PAST TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. AN UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ON SHORE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL FILL IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE
SAME TIME AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL FILL IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE
EXPANDING EAST AS CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE A
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING,
PROLONGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HOWEVER
WILL SLIGHTLY COOL TO SEASONAL NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT LATE ON MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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