412
FXUS64 KLUB 312314
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- COOLER AND A BIT BREEZY ON SATURDAY BEHIND AN EARLY-DAY COLD
FRONT.
- WARMER WEATHER SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TRANSLATES ESE-WARD. WITHIN THE CORRESPONDING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST TX, A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS OBSERVED PASSING OVER CO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS TO OUR SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THIS
EVOLUTION WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A PERIOD OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE WINDS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL END UP ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OTHERWISE, PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL STREAM OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT,
BUT GIVEN THE DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MILD AND TRANQUIL WEATHER DOMINATE THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER AS
WE SEE NO MEANINGFUL COLD FRONTS OR PRECIP ON THE HORIZON. HEIGHTS
RISE SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE HEELS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY, SO THIS WILL SPUR MILDER TEMPS
THAT CARRY INTO TUESDAY UNDER DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW. IN FACT,
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WE SEE BREEZY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UNFOLD AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING SOMETIME TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEMI-ZONAL FLOW BY THIS TIME SUGGESTS
THIS COOLING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MILDER SOUTHERLIES RESUME ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT TROUGH CRESTING THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SEVEN DAYS OUT, THIS SYSTEM COULD PACK MORE
PUNCH IN THE WIND DEPARTMENT WHILE POTENTIALLY RAISING FIRE
CONCERNS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIMINISHING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...07
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