938
FXUS64 KLUB 011102
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 602 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
FORECAST SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A CYCLONIC GYRE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER WATERSHED, WITH BROADLY
CYCLONIC FLOW ECLIPSING THE CWA. A PV ANOMALY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TRANCHE OF THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROPAGATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING, GOVERNING THE ADVECTION
OF CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE PASSAGE OF THIS PV ANOMALY
HAS GENERATED A HIGH-LEVEL, BAROCLINIC LEAF, WITH THICK CIRRUS BANDS
ADVECTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THAT WILL CLEAR THE CWA PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE, THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA, WITH BRISK, NORTHERLY WINDS TRAILING BEHIND. PRESSURE
TENDENCIES WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
VEERING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY SOLAR NOON AND DIMINISHING TOWARDS
SUNSET. THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, WITH HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 60S AMIDST FULL INSOLATION. CLEAR
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE-UPPER 30S AREA-WIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST (I.E., MULESHOE VICINITY).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS WILL FEATURE A
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING OVER THE MIDDLE TN RIVER
VALLEY, WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. TO THE NORTH, AN INTENSE, QUASI-ZONAL JET STREAK WILL BE
TRANSLATING OVER THE MEDICINE LINE/49TH PARALLEL, THUS SQUASHING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGING TO ITS SOUTH. A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE MEDICINE
LINE WILL INDUCE WEAK, LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
BREEZY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE
70S SUNDAY; AND THE TREND FOR EVEN WARMER WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE
FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS
SEMI-PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. AS A
RESULT, SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING NEARLY 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, GIVEN CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT ON THE BULK
OF THE SEMI-PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN BEING DISPLACED ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER, FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT REPRIEVE IN TEMPERATURES AS
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
BY THURSDAY, GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A POTENTIALLY WELL-
DEFINED PV ANOMALY EMANATING FROM A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS
WOULD ULTIMATELY SHIFT THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE EASTWARD AND INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS THURSDAY MAY BE
UNDERDONE. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES ON THE AMPLITUDE AND
POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LOWER
48. THEREFORE, NBM WINDS HAVE BEEN LEFT AS-IS, BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED IN FUTURE PROGNOSTICATIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...51
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