057
FXUS64 KLUB 021100
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
500 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 449 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN NOV 2 2025
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS W TX
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY. AS THIS HAPPENS,
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE ENTRANCE-REGION TO THE
JETLETS ALOFT, RESULTING IN A RESTORATION OF WEAK, LEEWARD PRESSURE
FALLS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWESTWARD AND BECOME BREEZY BY
THE LATE MORNING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLOGENESIS. ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE, IN ADDITION TO
FULL INSOLATION, WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AREA-WIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WHILE REMAINING OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST, WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
LOWER-MIDDLE 40S BENEATH A CLEAR SKY. IN SHORT: SIGWX NIL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN NOV 2 2025
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AS FORECAST
CONTINUITY FROM THE PRIOR ASSESSMENTS REMAIN INTACT. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WILL REMAIN SEMI-PROGRESSIVE OVER THE 49TH PARALLEL. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE ON TUESDAY, WITH
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHARPENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT A TAD BIT COMPARED TO MONDAY. THEREFORE, TUESDAY IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN EPHEMERAL COOLDOWN WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN RETURN THURSDAY, AS GLOBAL
NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW-AMPLITUDE, SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH ANOTHER DRY FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO W TX BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CWA WILL BE BEREFT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...51
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