209
FXUS64 KLUB 030529
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1129 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH COOLER
WEATHER FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER W TX TODAY
WHILE DAMPENING IN AMPLITUDE FROM THE SEMI-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
TRAVERSING THE 49TH PARALLEL. THE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
JORNADA DEL MUERTO DESERT BASIN AS OF 04Z, AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
WIND SPEEDS TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING
IN AN EPHEMERAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THOSE LOCALES. SINCE
THE FRONT WILL HAVE UNDERGONE FRONTOLYSIS, THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
RESTORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DEWPOINTS
WERE LOWERED TO ALIGN WITH THE DRIER CONSSHORT FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
AS FULL INSOLATION AND DEEPER MIXING COMPARED TO SUNDAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY LOWER RH VALUES. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE DAMPENING RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S AREA-WIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN SEMI-PROGRESSIVE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH THE CORE OF THE QUASI-ZONAL JET STREAKS
TRANSLATING OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA. BREEZY AND
VERY WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN ADVERTISED TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NEARLY 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST, AS THE SUBSIDENCE LAYER ALOFT WILL
HAVE ERODED AND ALLOW MUCH DEEPER MIXING THAN PRIOR DAYS. DEWPOINTS
WERE ONCE AGAIN LOWERED TO ALIGN WITH CONSSHORT, WHICH HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE DEEPER MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. FARTHER WEST, AN
INTENSE, NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PERTURB THE QUASI-ZONAL STATE OF THE FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF IT. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE, SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY BY THE TIME THE
FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE CENTER OF THE POST-FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH PROGRESSING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT, AND WHERE IT EVENTUALLY STALLS AND DISSIPATES, WILL GOVERN
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WEDNESDAY, AS A GRADIENT OF AT LEAST 10
DEGREES SHOULD BE PRESENT BY SOLAR NOON.
BY THURSDAY, THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS FOLLOWING THE
COMPLETION OF A CYCLONIC WAVE BREAK. A TRANSITION INTO A LOWER
AMPLITUDE, SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD THEN FOLLOW AS IT TRANSLATES
QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WITH THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF
THE PV RIBBON PROPAGATING OVER THE REGION. WINDS WERE RAISED A FEW
KT (NBM 75TH PERCENTILE) FOR THURSDAY, AS THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE RATON MESA/OK PH/TX PH REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15-25
MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH PEAK HEATING, WITH HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE MIDDLE-UPPER 80S, WHICH ARE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT GENERATED BY THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE SATURDAY. DESPITE FOUR
COLD FRONTS WITHIN ONE WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NIL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...51
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