402
FXUS64 KLUB 040601
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1201 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
- ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY, WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
UPPER RIDGING OVER EASTERN TEXAS HAD FLATTENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
MONDAY MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SHEARING W-E ALONG THE TX
AND LA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WSW WINDS ALOFT, HIGHER THICKNESSES AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY A LEE TROUGH THAT SPURS BREEZIER DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
LUBBOCK SHOULD COME CLOSE TO ITS RECORD HIGH OF 88 AS EVEN DRIER
DEWPOINTS BY THE AFTERNOON FOSTER DEEPER MIXING. ODDLY, MOS KEEPS
DEWPOINTS ON THE MOIST SIDE AND AS A RESULT ITS HIGH TEMPS ARE THE
SAME OR EVEN COOLER THAN MONDAY WHICH DOES NOT FIT THIS BREEZIER
DOWNSLOPE REGIME WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES. MUCH FARTHER NORTH
MEANWHILE, AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SWING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN A COLD FRONT REACHING THE FAR
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NO MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONT SPELLS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
VEER WEST WHILE SERVING TO KEEP LOWS ON THE MILDER SIDE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK, AND WILL
FEATURE THREE COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A SHARPLY CYCLONIC, NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH WILL HAVE EJECTED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE A
COMPACT, FAST-MOVING, SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL BECOME EXTENSIVELY MODIFIED BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES,
WITH FRONTOLYSIS ALREADY UNDERWAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL WEAKEN, A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF AROUND 10 DEGREES REMAINS FORECAST AREA-WIDE
WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS VEERING EASTWARD AFTER DUSK. THE COMBINATION
OF A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAXIMIZE THE EFFECTS OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING BY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE QUICK TO
PROGRESS OVER THE LOWER 48 WEDNESDAY, AS A CYCLONIC WAVE BREAK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTION OF THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
COMPLETES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS A LOWER-AMPLITUDE,
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PROPAGATE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
A NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO ONTARIO WILL IMPINGE ON THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY, AND
WILL INCREASE ITS CONCAVITY AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE CLOSED
LOW ROTATING OVER THE JAMES BAY. WINDS FOR THURSDAY WERE ONCE AGAIN
RAISED FROM THE NBM, AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE RATON MESA AND GENERATES A MODERATE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE BENEATH
THE INTENSE, CROSS-BARRIER FLOW ALOFT. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 15-25 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH, WILL BE COMMON, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES, OR AREAS
NEAREST THE SURFACE LOW. THE COMBINATION OF FULL INSOLATION AND THE
NEAR-CARDINAL, WESTERLY FETCH WILL AID IN STRONG, ADIABATIC WARMING
OF THE AIRMASS, WITH NEAR-RECORD TO POTENTIALLY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THURSDAY FOR LUBBOCK. A HIGH OF 87 DEGREES IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST, AND THE RECORD HIGH IS 87 DEGREES, WHICH WAS SET
IN 2023. THE NBM APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO THE SURPRISINGLY COOLER MOS, BUT ADDITIONAL UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS THURSDAY MAY PROVE NECESSARY. IN THE
MEANTIME, DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE NBM DUE TO
THE STRONG DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE, SHORTWAVE TROUGH, A
FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT, WITH A MODIFIED CP AIRMASS TRAILING BEHIND,
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT BY THE EVENING HOURS, AS A WEAK SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN SEMI-PROGRESSIVE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT CAA-WISE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS GLOBAL
NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LONGWAVE TROUGHING EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PROSPECTS FOR POPS REMAIN NIL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
CONTINUED VFR WITH SSW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY LATE MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93
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