681
FXUS64 KLUB 051112
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
512 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 511 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- COOLER TODAY AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THURSDAY.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
TEMPERATURES AT 10 PM AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS WERE CLOSER TO THE
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL STAY ON THE MILD SIDE
THROUGH THE NIGHT THANKS TO WSW WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IR AND
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOWED THIS FRONT ENTERING SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AT 10 PM AND AT ITS CURRENT PACE THIS SHOULD BE IN OUR
PANHANDLE COUNTIES BY 7-8 AM BEFORE EXITING OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES TOWARD NOON. FOLLOWING FROPA, SOME BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL REPLACE THE RECORD WARM, VERY DRY AND
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM TUESDAY AND MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S
NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH. NBM STILL LOOKS TOO SOFT WITH POST-FRONTAL
WINDS, SO THESE WERE NUDGED HIGHER TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WHICH FITS
NICER . MUCH COOLER LOWS AWAIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH
SETS UP CAMP ON THE CAPROCK UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL HAVE
EJECTED INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH THE LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SET TO EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS FOLLOWING THE
COMPLETION OF A CYCLONIC WAVE BREAK THURSDAY. AS THE LOW-AMPLITUDE,
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOSES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, A SOUTHWARD TRANSLATION
OF THE JETLETS WILL OCCUR, CAUSING THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER W
TX TO STRENGTHEN BY MID-DAY. THE INTENSITY OF THE CROSS-BARRIER FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE STEERING LAYER WILL RESULT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR
THE RATON MESA/OK PH/NORTHERN TX PH REGION, WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR
CYCLOGENESIS TO DRIVE A MODERATE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE BENEATH THE
INCREASING CONCAVITY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS THE SURFACE LOW
ROTATES INTO THE TX PH BY THURSDAY EVENING.
NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY, AND HIGHS WERE
RAISED FROM THE NBM, WHICH APPEAR TO BE UNDERDONE, IN ADDITION TO
MOS. LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AS DEEP MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER OCCURS, AND WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN RAISED CLOSER IN
LINE WITH THE UPPER-BOUNDS OF THE NWP GUIDANCE, NAMELY MEX/ECX. THE
INTENSITY OF THE DRY-BULBING WILL RESULT IN RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE
LOWER TEENS, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS DAYS PRIOR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING THE
CESSATION OF VERTICAL MIXING, BUT REMAIN BREEZY, WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY, WITH THE AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFYING POST-FROPA GIVEN THE
FRONTOLYSIS INVOLVED. A RELATIVELY NEBULOUS SURFACE RIDGE, AT OR
AROUND 1010 MB, WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BENEATH A STRONG WARM
NOSE NEAR 700 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-TO-UPPER
70S FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA, RESPECTIVELY, FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH, A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE WILL BE ROTATING
OVER THE JAMES BAY, WITH THE JET STREAK FORECAST TO PHASE WITH THE
MORE-PROGRESSIVE AND QUASI-ZONAL JET STREAM STRETCHED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48. THIS WILL ALLOW AN INTENSE AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THIS PHASING OCCURS. THE FOURTH COLD FRONT OF THE
WEEK IS, THEREFORE, FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS
AND THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK; AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WERE LOWERED DUE TO THE THINKING OF A
FASTER TIME-OF-ARRIVAL COMPARED TO THE NBM PROGNOSTICATION. WINDS
WERE ALSO RAISED AND ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO, AS
GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE
HIGH TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING TO 1040+ MB AS IT ROTATES INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY NEED
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS AS GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE TIMING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE ADVECTION OF BLUSTERY, NORTHERLY WINDS TO
FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGHS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGHS THAT HAVE PRESSURES NEAR 1040 MB ARE
TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A CP AIRMASS, WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. THE
COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERLY
FETCH DISSIPATES AND RETURN FLOW IS ESTABLISHED BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NIL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A COLD FRONT ARRIVING MID TO LATE MORNING WILL BRING A SWITCH TO
NORTH WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...07
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