000
FXUS64 KLUB 211126
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 513 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WET CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SPIRALING ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES LATE THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED
INTO THE MAIN FLOW. AS A RESULT, FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER OUT OF THE
WEST WHILE WEAK SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE. AT
THE SURFACE THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND IN TURN WE WILL SEE WEST WINDS VEER OUT OF
THE NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FROPA SURGES SOUTHWARD INTO
THEW AREA FROM THE NORTH. DUE TO THE LATER TIMING OF THE FRONT,
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER FROM WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, EXPECT A
MUCH COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
BY THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE REMAINS FIXATED
ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THIS, COOLER AIR BROUGHT IN FROM FRIDAY
NIGHTS FROPA WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START
THE EXTENDED IN THE 60S WHILE WEATHER REMAINS QUIET AND DRY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND PARENT TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL
SLOWLY TRANSLATE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN DESERT SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY, BEFORE RAPIDLY GAINING SPEED AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION AND TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE FA SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD, WHERE WE WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SURFACE MOISTURE WITH WINDS
VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, WE EXPECT TO SEE DEWPOINTS QUICKLY
BEGIN TO RISE AND ARE PROGGED IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSLATES INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASE
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION, WITH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVERSPREADING AS AN H5 60+ KNOT JET STREAKS MOVES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN COMBINED WITH BENEFICIAL MOISTURE
IN PLACE, WITH LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS AROUND AN 1"
TO 1.25" (PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS), SUGGEST WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON AS WE FIND
OURSELVES WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY (11/20), THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE
POSITIONED AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH, ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSLATES TO THE EAST, WINDS WEST OF THE
LOW OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL WORK TO SHARPEN A DRYLINE
ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A SIMILAR LINEAR SET UP AS WHAT
WE SAW EARLIER TODAY, ESPECIALLY AS THE PACIFIC FRONT BEGINS TO
OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER TUNE
WITH ONE ANOTHER, IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFICS,
BUT GIVEN THE MESOSCALE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PRESENT IN
COMBINATION WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG (PRIMARILY EAST OF
I-27) SUGGEST A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE REALIZATION OF HOW MUCH
MOISTURE RETURN WE CAN SEE, GIVEN THE FACT AMPLE MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK TO ENTER THE AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BE FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK, BUT GIVEN THE FACT THIS IS STILL A
FEW DAYS OUT, WE WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN NBM WIDESPREAD POPS WHILE
CAPPING THEM IN THE 80S.
AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AND DRIER AIR
EXPANDS WESTWARD WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING OUT OF THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST, WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.
OVERALL DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OUR EYES ARE
THEN SET AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION, AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS MID-WEEK AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER CLOSED LOW WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THIS SYSTEM AN OPEN WAVE. HOWEVER, THEY SEEM TO BE
HANDLING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT FAIRLY WELL. GIVEN THIS, NBM HIGHS
IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL BE KEPT. AT THIS
TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICK WITH WINDS
VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
TO OUR NORTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR
TURKEY DAY!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO LOW CIGS AND VISBYS
AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AT THE MOMENT.
ADDITIONALLY, AN AREA OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TO THE
NORTH. LOW CIGS AND VISBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH GREATEST CHANCES AT KLBB AND KPVW.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01
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