637
FXUS64 KLUB 212330
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
530 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTS FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S STORM
SYSTEM. AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SOCAL
COAST, MODEST MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY RESULTING IN QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS
COOL SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES OVERHEAD, SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE STILL RELATIVELY MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS. SATURDAY IS SET TO BE A PLEASANT AND MILD FALL DAY
WITH RIDGING STILL IN PLACE, WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA, WITH MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT PLACING
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE
GRADUALLY GIVEN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COMPONENT,
AND COLUMN MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY RICH BY LATE NOVEMBER
STANDARDS27 WITH PWATS RUNNING ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW, THIS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BEGINNING BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY. THE STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF H5 TO H3 JET STREAKS
OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES, AND A
STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT (UP TO 0.25" TO 0.50" POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION), THROUGH A FEW ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN
END FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A MODIFIED PACIFIC COLD FRONT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM, BUT MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUNCHES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL BE A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THE MOST NOTABLE IMPACT BEING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND
BEYOND, MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A RETURN
OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.|
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE AT LBB
AND PVW, ALBEIT A BIT LATER AND MORE TOWARD DAYBREAK. NEWEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THIS FOG WHICH MAY KEEP
VISBYS MORE IN THE MVFR REALM UNTIL DISSIPATING BY 16Z. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT VIS FALLS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT N WINDS TONIGHT TURN WSW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93
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