006
FXUS64 KLUB 220538
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE SUNRISE.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
A WEAK, NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN
OVER MUCH OF THE FA WITH CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING RH
VALUES IN THE 90S BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
BEGINNING AROUND 3 AM. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE. THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE
TONIGHT. MILD HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL FILL IN FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
EARLY SUNDAY AND IS PROJECTED TO TREK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS PROGRESSION WILL POSITION AN UPPER
LEVEL JET OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BOOST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION
OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND JET AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE REST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH PWAT
VALUES UP TO 1.25 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION, DIMINISHING THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND A PACIFIC FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
PUSHING IN A DRIER AIR MASS. MONDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S DUE TO MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THESE COOLER AIR MASS DOES NOT LAST LONG
AS SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
FOG PROSPECTS FOR SATURDAY MORNING AT LBB CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER,
SO EARLIER MVFR VISBYS WERE REMOVED. PVW STILL HOLDS SOME POTENTIAL
OF MVFR OR LOWER VISBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page