277
FXUS64 KLUB 241121
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WILL CLEAR OUT BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.
- DRY OVERALL THIS WEEK WITH MOSTLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL A
STRONG COLD FRONT THREATENS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
A STACKED CYCLONE WAS FOUND CURLING ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AT 10
PM AND IS SET TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY WHILE
MINORING OUT. MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING HAD ALREADY ENVELOPED ALL OF
OUR AREA BEHIND THE FINAL VESTIGES OF STORMS CROSSING THE 100TH
MERIDIAN. THE LOW LEVELS REMAINED VERY MOIST AS GULF MOISTURE ON
LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS WAS FUELING A ROUND OF STRATUS AND FOG. UNTIL A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOVES ACROSS THE CAPROCK AFTER MIDNIGHT, FOG MAY
GROW DENSE AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. BARRING A
SLIVER OF FOG AND STRATUS NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK,
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE ON MONDAY WITH SOME STEADY WNW BREEZES
AROUND 15 MPH BY LATE MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES MILDER
THAN SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS AHEAD OF CHILLIER LOWS IN THE 30S
OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS A QUIET AND TAME ONE AT LEAST UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE AFFECTS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
CONUS. UNTIL THEN, WE'LL BE CONTENDING WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAT DELIVERS A DRY COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY. MILDER SSW
BREEZES RESUME IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS
BACKING W AND EVENTUALLY SW INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
CARVES ITSELF OUT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS LARGER PATTERN CHANGE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY A
SHIFT IN THE POLAR VORTEX TO THE HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL DISLODGE A
LARGE DOME OF FRIGID AIR INTO MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS BY THE
WEEKEND WITH OUR AREA POTENTIALLY SEEING A STRONG COLD FRONT BY LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS DRASTICALLY CHANGED ITS MIND AND NOW
FAILS TO BRING THIS FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP AT ANY POINT WHICH IS IN
CONTRAST TO THE OVERALL SIGNAL OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. NO
NEED TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE NBM THIS MANY DAYS OUT AS IT
IS TRENDING COLDER BY SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT THERE
IS A WINDOW FOR LOW POPS OFF THE CAPROCK NEAR A RIBBON OF GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
LOW CIGS AND VISBYS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT KCDS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE RAPIDLY CLEARING OUT AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST.
AFTERWARDS, VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...01
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