031
FXUS64 KLUB 250536
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW WILL SLIGHTLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL NOW THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT
RESULTED IN ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING
WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE FRONT. DESPITE THE FROPA, CAA WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL TONIGHT AND CAN EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY
THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND JUST ABOVE FREEZING LOWS FOR OFF THE
CAPROCK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE SITS TO THE WEST. BY FRIDAY, UPPER
FLOW WILL SHIFT BACK TO ZONAL AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
FLATTENED. COOLER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE LOW.
THE RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WAA FROM INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS IN THE EVENING, HOWEVER MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
INDICATE ARCTIC AIR CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. THE NEXT BOUT
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW WILL RETURN
EARLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE UPPER PATTERN. ECMWF
INDICATES A DRIER PATTERN OF A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CONUS DEVELOPING TO A CLOSED LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOCAL BY
MONDAY. GFS INDICATES A WETTER PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SWINGING SOUTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS
THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, THE NBM WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY WILL BE KEPT THIS PACKAGE, HOWEVER CAN EXPECT
CHANGES IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM BR TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
CDS, BUT PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL IS TOO LOW FOR TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS TO THE ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
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