805
FXUS64 KLUB 251745
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS FINAL PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AS OF 11 AM. WHILE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY'S, THE MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL
BE WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WHICH WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 50S AREA WIDE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. LOW END BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID
TO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS FOR
TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK OR COLDER ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL BE THE WARMEST AS USUAL
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING DOMINATES
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
HIGHS AROUND 60. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY, QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES BY
LATE FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND WILL, IN TURN,
BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES TO OUR
EAST. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIP JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT THE MOMENT. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE POSITIVE TILT USUALLY RESULT IN DRY
SYSTEMS. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENTLY THE
FORECAST WILL REFLECT HIGHS IN THE 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S AREA WIDE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING AN
INCREASE OF WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL THE
ENTIRE CYCLE.
FORD
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...26
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