806
FXUS64 KLUB 260530
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- CHILLY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION.
- COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODEST UPPER RIDGING OFF THE SOCAL COAST ONLY
VERY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD. AS A RESULT, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
SET TO CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA KEEPING THE WEST TX REGION DRY IN THE
NEAR TERM. A CHILLY EARLY MORNING PERIOD IS ON THE WAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY, THOUGH NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL GENERALLY
SUBSIDE AND BECOME CALM BY ABOUT SUNRISE AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. NEUTRAL MIDLEVEL HEIGHT TENDENCIES AND SUPPRESSED
SFC-500MB LAYER THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY CHILLY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
DESPITE A RETURNING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PACKAGE BEFORE
POSSIBLE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE SITS TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION BEFORE SHIFTING TO ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT. CAN EXPECT SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND PREVAILING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE FIRST BOUT OF
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THE LATTER HALF OF FRIDAY. A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER COLORADO, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EFFECTIVELY INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO EFFICIENT WAA
RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. ALL STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AT OR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SET UP THIS WEEKEND
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ON SHORE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY BEFORE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN
TROUGH AS IT TRANSLATES OVER THE ROCKIES. AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS, A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. NBM OVERESTIMATED TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND WERE ADJUSTED USING THE NBM25TH WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO UPPER 60S
OVER SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PREVAILING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
WINDS, COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO USHER INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND CAN EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE NEXT ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
TRANSLATES SOUTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER, MODELS
DIFFER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. GFS INDICATES
DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS. ECMWF
KEEPS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH CLOSING TO A
LOW AND TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE REGION. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
UPPER PATTERN AND STILL BEING A FEW DAYS OUT, NBM 20-30 PERCENT POP
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE KEPT, HOWEVER CAN EXPECT CHANGES FOR
FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
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