852
FXUS64 KLUB 262325
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
- CHILLY TONIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.
- COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO RESPOND TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO AND ARE BEGINNING TO VEER SOUTHWARD. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THE AIRMASS TO OUR
SOUTH HAS BEEN MODIFIED THANKS TO TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AREA WIDE TODAY. SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE ON THE LOW-END BREEZY SIDE
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW, BUT
OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TAME AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY RELAXED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
DISSIPATES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY START TO THANKSGIVING DAY
WITH MORNING LOWS NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE FA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THANKSGIVING WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY THANKS TO
THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE, BUT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP LIMIT
THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE FLATTENED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BY AN UPPER LOW
PUSHING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LOW WILL
TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVER THE CASCADES
AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY
SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER WYOMING/COLORADO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPEN AS TRAVELS JUST AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO
THE FA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS AS PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AVERAGE 4 MB/HR. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP WITH
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE LOW 40S AT BEST WITH SOME AREAS STAYING IN THE
30S. MORNING LOWS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN QUESTION BEYOND MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
REMAIN DRY WHICH IS EXPECTED WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH WITH A
POSITIVE TILT. THE ECMWF, WHILE NOW HAVING AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE REGION, CONTINUES TO SHOW WINTER PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...30
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