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FXUS64 KLUB 270538
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
- NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
BACK TO A MORE ZONAL DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN FLATTENS
AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WHICH WILL IN TURN BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS TOGETHER WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT
THANKSGIVING DAY WEATHER-WISE ACROSS WEST TX. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MILDER OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH MOSTLY MILD WEATHER ON FRIDAY. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER COLORADO, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EFFECTIVELY INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS UP TO
20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH THE
EVENING. EFFICIENT WAA FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SADLY, MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LOW PUSHING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY
FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRANSLATES OVER THE
ROCKIES. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TREK EAST, AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY
MORNING. NBM CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT,
THEREFORE OVERESTIMATING TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED USING NBM25TH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND PROLONGED CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. THERE
IS A SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IN THE UPPER PATTERN FOR
MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING OVER WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER THERE IS
SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.
ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH THE TROUGH TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE CWA
WHILE GFS IS SLOWER AND BRINGS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD. EITHER SYNOPTIC SET UP DOES INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NBM
SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT UP WITH THE MODELS, THEREFORE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL BE KEPT AS IS. HOWEVER, AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, CAN STILL EXPECT CHANGES FOR
FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME LOWER STRATUS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
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