481
FXUS64 KLUB 272312
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
512 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
- SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PART OF THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
MID TO UPPER FLOW OVERHEAD WILL BACK FROM WEST-NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING TO MORE ZONAL ON FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN END OF
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS, ALTHOUGH THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE, MAINLY OFF THE DECK AS
OPPOSED TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING STRATUS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WHEN SURFACE FLOW ALSO
BEGINS TO PICK UP. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS TO HOLD ON TIGHTLY THROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE WESTERN ZONES
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER EAST AND WARMER WEST AND HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD MOS VALUES FROM THE WARMER NBM. ALSO, THE WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION OFF THE DECK MAY RESULT IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THAT
COULD BE RELEASED AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS INTERACTS WITH SAID INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE MAINLY LIMITING
SAID CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, ALTHOUGH A FEW SOLUTIONS, MOST NOTABLY THE WRF-NAM WHICH HAS
THE MOST INSTABILITY AND THE WEAKEST CAP, DO CONVECT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. NBM HAS REDUCED THE SLIGHT MENTION, ALMOST ELIMINATING IT
COMPLETELY, BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A SOLUTION THAT KEEPS A SLIGHT
MENTION OF SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THAT TIME FRAME.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON FRIDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS UNLEASHING COLD AIR
THAT IS FIRMLY IN PLACE FROM THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA
NORTHWARD THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THAT COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MORESO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUNDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY TO
THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY NIGHT, EFFECTIVELY CARVING OUT A BROAD
TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA THAT WILL REINFORCE THE COOL/COLD REGIME
HEADING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF IT WILL BE DRY, BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. NBM
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MENTION WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. RECEIVING
A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT MAY BE DIFFICULT, BUT
THOSE AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WOULD HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING LOOKS FINE FOR NOW.
ACCUMULATIONS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO BE INSIGNIFICANT.
BEYOND MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD IS LOOKING TO BE
GENERALLY COOL AND DRY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT THIS ENERGY IS TAKE A
MERIDIONAL TRACK DOWN THE WESTERN STATES BEFORE CLOSING AND CUTTING
OFF WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CONUS WILL LEAD TO A
CONTINUATION OF COOL, BUT MODERATING, TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK, PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY JUST ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY
DECEMBER AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...10
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