008
FXUS64 KLUB 280531
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND STORM
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED TODAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY NOTABLY COLDER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
SHOULD BE A BREEZY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FILL IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BEGINNING AROUND 3 AM, HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
COLORADO. STRATIFORM CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR JUST WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S TO THE WEST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING EFFICIENT WAA AND
ELEVATED CAPE RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. NBM HAS
BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR REGION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH MODELS KEEPING MOST STORM ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA, HOWEVER KEEPS A SLIVER OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. LINGERING STRATIFORM CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
AFTER A PERIOD OF PLEASANT WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK, A
MUCH COLDER PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL COME AS A RESULT OF A
GENERAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONTINENT WITH SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES SET TO TRACK OVER THE CONUS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
PASS OVER THE MO VALLEY ON SATURDAY, SENDING A STRONG (BUT DRY) COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS SET TO PASS
THROUGH WEST TX BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER AN INITIALLY MILD
MORNING AND MIDDAY PERIOD DRIVEN BY WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING, MUCH COLDER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES SET TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE LOCKED FIRMLY IN
PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUD COVER
KEEPING HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
ON MONDAY, A SECOND AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY EXIT OVER THE
PLAINS STATES, WHICH WILL SEND A MORE MODEST REINFORCING COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES, MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND DRIER WITH BOTH THE NEAR SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL AIRMASS.
CONSEQUENTLY, IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF SNOW FLURRY OVER THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE ON
MONDAY, AND POPS ARE NOW BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, MOST MODELS ADVERTISE A
CONTINUATION OF A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF SHORTWAVES
WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CONUS. THIS GENERALLY POINTS TO
AN UP-AND-DOWN FLUCTUATION OF TEMPERATURES DAY TO DAY, WITH
RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LIKELY THEREAFTER. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE VERY
LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
MVFR CEILING HAVE FILLED IN OVER KLBB AND KPVW AND ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND TO KCDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...10
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