904
FXUS64 KLUB 282305
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
505 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 456 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY NOTABLY COLDER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
BREEZY AND COOL WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW A SURFACE
CYCLONE TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL IN TURN
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HEALTHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW STRATUS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY SHALLOW BUT MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL MAXIMIZE IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
LOW STRATUS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION BUT WITH A SHALLOWER LAYER OF
MOISTURE AND LESS ASCENT. THEREFORE, MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT
LIKELY ELSEWHERE. THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR WOULD BE LIGHT DRIZZLE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT EASTWARD ON SATURDAY MORNING
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY HAVE A WIDE
VARIATION ON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO THIS COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE MORNING AND
THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTH PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE WIND FORECAST WAS BUMPED UP FROM NBM GUIDANCE AS
BLENDED GUIDANCE TENDS TO UNDER FORECAST WIND SPEEDS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
BEGINNING WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALREADY BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY SATURDAY
TAPPING INTO SOME ARCTIC AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THE ARCTIC AIR DUMP WILL LAST FOR ONLY A COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO BEFORE
WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AROUND TUESDAY. A REX BLOCK WILL
FORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND KEEPING THE STEADY FLOW OF
COLD AIR FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL
INITIALLY DROP BELOW 0C ON SATURDAY EVENING AND BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY
MORNING AROUND -3 TO -5C AS A 1040MB SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM
NBM GUIDANCE FOR THE SAME REASON AS ABOVE WITH THE WINDS. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THE COLD NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUESDAY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME
BREEZY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED AROUND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER 1040MB SURFACE RIDGE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS COLD AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
TRANSIENT THAN THE WEEKEND ONE WITH ONLY A BRIEF DROP IN
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 456 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS BY 02Z THIS
EVENING FOR LBB AND PVW. CIGS AT CDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING THE VFR BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
AT PVW AND LBB AND SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...51
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