242
FXUS64 KLUB 300549
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN EXPECTED TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING INTO MID-WEEK, BEFORE FALLING
AGAIN THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
WIND SPEEDS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE FA WHILE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WILL CONTINUE CAA AS WELL AS HELP
WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS STRATUS IS WHAT WILL KEEP TODAY'S
HIGHS ON THE COLD SIDE. THE NAM HAS WARMED A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY'S
HIGHS BUT IS STILL WELL BELOW NBM. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL BE LOWERED
FROM THE NBM AS NOT MUCH WARMING WILL BE EXPECTED AS LONG AS CLOUD
COVER REMAINS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS EXCEPT ACROSS ZONES ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO LINE
WHERE SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT. SURFACE WINDS WILL RESPOND
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
STILL BE COLD, TEENS AND 20S AREA WIDE, CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH 10
MPH SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FURTHER.
THE 00Z NAM DEVELOPS LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT,
BUT THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE, AT BEST, THICK STRATUS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 20+ DEGREE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO BE OUT OF THE NW AND
PREVENT HIGHS FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN PARTICULAR WILL BE VERY COLD, FALLING WELL INTO
THE TEENS OVER THE FAR SW PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL,
ALTHOUGH THE LATTER WILL SEE A SHARP GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH LOW 50S OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND HIGHS
WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WHILE LAST
NIGHT THE GFS WAS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH QPF, THE LATEST RUN SHOWS
IT NOW COMPLETELY EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, NOW OTHER MODELS ARE
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
AND THUS RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN THE LATEST FORECAST.
NONETHELESS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT SUGGEST A DELUGE AT THIS
POINT AND NBM IS PROBABLY TOO BULLISH, HOWEVER AS ALWAYS THIS FAR
OUT THINGS CAN CHANGE. AN ACTIVE 500 MB PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06Z AT THE
TERMINALS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER CIGS WILL BE VFR OR MVFR.
THE TAFS WILL REFLECT LOW END VFR FOR THE TIME BEING. STRATUS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT VARIATION IN CIGS EXPECTED.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51
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