652
FXUS64 KLUB 010534
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
- WARMER TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WARMING INTO MID-WEEK, THEN COOLING BY
THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BEFORE WARMING AGAIN BY
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION, CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
SUN TO SHOW AND HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S, AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
HIGHS FROM REACHING OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY THE LATE EVENING AND WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND
THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. COMBINED WITH A RETURN OF SW SURFACE FLOW, HIGHS WILL RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ANOTHER
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND A 10-15 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY HOW FAST IT MOVES, WITH LOW 50S OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TO MID 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING A MUCH MORE SHALLOW AND FASTER UPPER TROUGH, WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. PER USUAL IN THIS TIMEFRAME, NBM
WAS PREVIOUSLY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
PREFERENCE WOULD BE TO START POPS LOWER AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM
AS CONFIDENCE GROWS. LUCKILY THE LATEST RUN CAME IN AROUND 30% AREA-
WIDE WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. NONETHELESS IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL THURSDAY MORNING, IT WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO BE FREEZING AND ANY NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT
THOSE TEMPERATURES IS WORTH CLOSE ATTENTION. AGAIN MORE ZONAL FLOW
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BRING A RETURN
TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, AT CDS AFTER 06Z AND PVW/LBB
AROUND 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS
THAN WITH MVFR CIGS, BUT IT IS FAR FROM IMPOSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z MONDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51
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