155
FXUS64 KLUB 021143
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
543 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
- MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER TODAY.
- COOLER WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY, OTHERWISE QUIET
AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESSENTIALLY CALM OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO
FAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND MULESHOE, WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO WEAK LEE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TODAY. BREEZY SW WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH ON THE
CAPROCK WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY, TOPPING OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10-15 MPH AND
THUS WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER RELATIVELY SPEAKING
(NEAR 15 DEGREES) THAN THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT AS IT TRACKS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS HIGHS WILL BE WHATEVER THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE IS IMMEDIATELY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
FALL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN ANY CASE, THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 40S, WHERE THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS MAY MAKE IT TO 60 IF THE
FRONT SLOWS DOWN.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MUCH-
ADVERTISED SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT, THE UPPER TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE QUITE SHALLOW AND POSITIVELY TILTED. ANY CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HOURS AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SW PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS NEAREST TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY, THIS WOULD ALL FALL AS SNOW, HOWEVER ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE VERY MINIMAL. MUCH OF THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WOULD BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA GIVEN THE TROUGH
ORIENTATION AND AS OF NOW AND POPS HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY REMOVED
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AS THEY WERE FOR THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
DESPITE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN, FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE WARMER AND DRY WITH A GENERALLY SW SURFACE FLOW. SATURDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH DUE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HIGHS COULD
POTENTIALLY REACH NEAR 70 OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SWITCH NORTH ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER
IT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS TWO AND TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP BY AROUND 5-8 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
VFR WITH GUSTY SW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHEST AT LBB WHERE
SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. ONCE WINDS DRAW LOWER BY SUNSET,
WE EXPECT LLWS FROM PVW TO CDS AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THIS
THREAT COULD EXPAND INTO LBB IN LATER FORECASTS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93
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