507
FXUS64 KLUB 021754
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
- COLDER WITH CHANCES OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAINLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- QUIET AND WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THAT IS UNDERWAY TODAY WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER NIGHT TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF
NORMAL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO WESTERLY BY THE END OF
TODAY AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
EASTWARD OVER ONTARIO WILL DRIVE THE NEXT COLD AIR MASS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN ARRIVAL IN THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND PASSAGE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
BY NOON LEADING A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF A
LITTLE OVER TEN DEGREES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR
CORNERS/COLORADO ROCKIES WHILE AT THE SURFACE COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION
TODAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. THE SETUP WITH A HIGHLY POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, FILLING AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD, WITH A DRY SUBCLOUD AIR MASS, AND LIKELY LIMITED
TIME HORIZON TO MOISTEN SAID AIR MASS REALLY SUGGESTS LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, FAVORING FLURRIES TO A VERY
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW. THAT SAID, ANY BIT OF A BANDED STRUCTURE OF
STRONGER UPRIGHT LIFTING COULD LEAD TO GREATER PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION SUFFICIENT TO MOISTEN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER TO SUPPORT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT TO HAPPEN WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH LOWERING CHANCES
SPREADING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE GIVEN SAID REASONING.
LIFT SHOULD END BY OR AROUND NOON THURSDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES
FALLING QUICKLY INTO NON-MENTIONABLE RANGE. SOME MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IS MORE LIKELY WITH MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S EXPECTED TO THE EAST.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET. A BROADER,
MORE STAGNANT TROUGH WILL HANG OUT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA KEEPING DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD THROUGH
FRIDAY AT WHICH POINT IT KICKS QUICKLY EASTWARD. MOISTURE WILL BE
EVEN MORE LIMITED WITH THIS TROUGH AND LIFT FOCUSED WELL TO THE
SOUTH TO BE A CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. A RETURN TO
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ABUNDANT INSOLATION WILL LEAD
TO A QUICK WARMUP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES BEHIND THE
DEPARTING MID/UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES (BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS) NEAR TO AROUND FIVE DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET, LLWS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KPVW
AND KCDS. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE LLWS DEVELOPS AT KLBB, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12
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