403
FXUS64 KLUB 040558
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1158 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
- SNOW AND SLEET REMAINS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. UP TO
ONE INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- GENERALLY WARMER AND DRIER FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
TRACK, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG PVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND A LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT FORCING TO DRIVE
WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SLEET HAS
BEEN PREVIOUSLY REPORTED WITH A 20 DEGREE DEWPOINT SPREAD IN THE
LUBBOCK AREA, HOWEVER NONE OF THAT ACTUALLY ACCUMULATED. IN ANY
CASE, LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
SNOWBANDS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SW PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE AREAS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR
TRACKING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AS SLOW AND/OR SLEET. TOTALS OF UP TO INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
TROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY AND SHOULD COMPLETELY END BY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOME PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH,
HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE, ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID
40S. FURTHER CLEARING WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVERHEAD THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA SUNDAY, BRINGING A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50'S.
HOWEVER, THE COOL DOWN SUNDAY WILL BE BRIEF, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD, BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AIDED BY SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS. TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH INTO THE 70'S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF LOW CIGS TO THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF CIGS DIPPING DOWN INTO IFR CATEGORY FOR ALL
TAF SITES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE VISBY AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. THE VISBY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE KCDS
TERMINAL WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WITH LESSER CHANCES AT KLBB AND KPVW. LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR AT KLBB
AND KPVW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>029.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...01
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