603
FXUS64 KLUB 311122
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
522 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE LAST DAY OF 2025.
- STRONG, WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
CAPROCK ON NEW YEAR'S DAY AND WILL LAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF LATE TUESDAY EVENING HIGHLIGHTS DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH A
FAIRLY LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
OUR STRETCH OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAST DAY
OF 2025 AS THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD. THE
ASSOCIATED MODEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND CONTINUING WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN PLEASANTLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MAXING
OUT AROUND 10 MPH GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH. PLEASANT WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WE RING IN
THE NEW YEAR WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WEST WINDS, AND LOW
TEMPERATURES JUST A HINT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
THE FIRST DAY OF 2026 WILL START OUT IN CLASSIC W TX FASHION, WITH
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AND LAST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO FRIDAY. IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A SPLITTING OF THE JET
STREAM WILL OCCUR THROUGH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S., WITH THE REMNANTS OF A CUT-OFF LOW HAVING
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERN-STREAM JETLET TRANSLATING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO W TX. THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS THURSDAY, WITH A THICK
CIRRUS DECK ACCOMPANYING THE RIBBON OF DPVA PROPAGATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE VIGOROUS
ABOVE 600 MB AND ASCEND THROUGH 200 MB. HIGHLY ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS THICK OVERCAST, WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CAPROCK DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE LEADING WAVE OF DPVA PROPAGATES OVER THE CWA. CYCLOGENESIS WILL
BE ONGOING NEAR THE RATON MESA BENEATH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, AND WILL GENERATE A MODERATE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE, WITH AN
EXPECTATION FOR WESTERLY WINDS TO ACCELERATE BETWEEN 20-30 MPH
ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED
SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN THE BACKING OF WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR LOCALES NEAR THE
100TH MERIDIAN. FARTHER WEST, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NM
STATE LINE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE CIRRUS
DECK BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE RH MINIMA TO SPIKE
DESPITE THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS (THIS IS COMMONPLACE WITH
PACIFIC COLD FRONTS), AND WILL NIX ANY CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER,
ESPECIALLY AS RH MINIMA CONGRUENT WITH THE FASTEST WINDS WILL
ALREADY BE NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
TO START OUT 2026 WILL ALSO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST OF THE
CWA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PH WHERE MOIST
ADVECTION OCCURS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE LOW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK TO LOCALLY STRONG THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, AND WINDS WERE ONCE AGAIN RAISED FROM THE NBM AND ALIGNED
WITH THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE, WHICH LIES WITHIN THE UPPER-BOUND OF
THE RECENT MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE ALSO WARMED DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT, WESTERLY FETCH; AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST, A VORTICITY
LOBE EMANATING FROM A NEUTRALLY-TILTING TROUGH OFFSHORE CA WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH SOUTHERN-STREAM SPLIT OF THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE,
RESULTING IN TERTIARY CYCLOGENESIS OVER W TX. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
BRISK WINDS WHILE VEERING NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY, WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING LATE-DAY FRIDAY AS THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
QUICKLY EJECTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL N TX.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT, AND WILL
KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES SATURDAY, WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL-ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S. LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE JET STREAM RETURNING TO A PHASED STATE. TYPICAL W TX
BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN THROUGH THE TAIL-END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, ALONG WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS. POPS REMAIN NIL OTHERWISE.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
NO THREATS TO VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THIS NEW YEAR'S EVE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93
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