293
FXUS64 KLUB 311749
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- STRONG, WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE CAPROCK THE AFTERNOON OF NEW YEAR'S DAY INTO FRIDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF 2026.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A RESPECTABLE RIDGE TO OUR WEST ROUGHLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEADING TO A
ZONAL FLOW REGIME BY 00Z/FRI. FAIR WEATHER WITH MILD WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY, WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MAINLY WEST
OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS PEAKING AROUND 25
MPH NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES, BUT AFTER ANALYSIS OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, HAVE
ELECTED TO REMOVE THESE GIVEN DOWNWARD OMEGA IN THE SATURATED LAYERS
MAINLY ABOVE 600MB COMBINED WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. STILL,
EVEN IF PRECIPITATION ALOFT WERE TO FORM, THREE MILES IS A LONG
WAY FOR A WATER DROPLET TO FALL AND NOT EVAPORATE IN SUB 50% RH.
IT COULD, HOWEVER, HELP WINDS GUST AT THE SURFACE NEAR ANY VIRGA.
SFC MIN RH VALUES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30 PCT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON REMAINING WELL CLEAR OF ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
DESPITE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEW YEAR'S CELEBRATIONS IN WEST TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
ZONAL FLOW PRESENT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BRIEFLY
PERTURBED BY A MINOR DISTURBANCE TRANSITIONING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FEATURE, RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WITH PEAK H5 HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY BEFORE WE ARE SITUATED ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS.
THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK RETURNING TO ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN. ALL IN ALL, IT'S LOOKING
LIKE A QUIET AND WARM FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH SEVERAL DAYS UP
IN THE 70S AND EVEN LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS OUT
EAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A BREEZY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING
UP NEAR 25 MPH, NO SUBSTANTIAL FRONTS, NO MEANINGFUL CHANCES OF
RAIN, AND NOT MUCH WIND EITHER (BY THE WEST TEXAS DEFINITION.)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP MID-TO-LATE MORNING
ON NEW YEAR'S DAY MAKING FOR SPIRITED NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS FOR
LIGHT GA AIRCRAFT ON N/S ORIENTED RUNWAYS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. BUT HEY, IF YOU'RE HEADING EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
YOU CAN GET A BIT SMOOTHER AIR ABOVE 8000' MSL AND A 50 KT
TAILWIND. BETTER GA FLYING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
HAPPY NEW YEAR Y'ALL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26
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