639
FXUS64 KLUB 010604
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1204 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
- 2026 WILL START OUT WITH WEST WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH ON THE
CAPROCK, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND THICK OVERCAST.
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
NEW YEAR'S EVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY CUT-OFF ROTATING TOWARDS CA, WITH AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC
LEAF ADVECTING POLEWARD OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE THICK CIRRUS SHIELD,
WHICH IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MB THICK AS OBSERVED ON 01/00Z RAOBS
UPSTREAM OF THE CWA AND RECENT WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY, IS NOW ADVECTING
OVER THE NM STATE LINE INTO W TX. THE BAROCLINIC LEAF WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSED LOW DISSOLVES INTO AN OPEN WAVE, WITH THE 300 MB TROUGH SET
TO EJECT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN INTENSE, MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ALSO TRANSLATE EASTWARD
BENEATH THE EJECTING TROUGH ABOVE IT, WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR HIGHLY
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO ACCOMPANY THE RIBBON OF DPVA. THERE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SPRINKLES, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TX
PH, AS THE RIBBON OF DPVA PROPAGATES OVER W TX AND CEILINGS LOWER TO
AROUND 10 KFT AGL.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN THE OK/TX PH AS THE MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE ARRIVES BENEATH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND THE
CORRESPONDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCELERATE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO 20-30 MPH,
PRIMARILY ON THE CAPROCK, THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FARTHER EAST INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS, WHERE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR ALONG A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH
ANCHORING INTO THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE TX PH. THEREFORE,
WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FOR LOCALES NEAR THE
100TH MERIDIAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT, AND WILL KEEP WINDS BRISK TO LOCALLY STRONG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COMPACT VORTICITY LOBE (I.E., THE
REMNANTS OF THE PRIOR CLOSED LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN-STREAM
SPLIT OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHLY LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, WITH MILD MORNING
LOWS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE AS WINDS VEER NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE SUNRISE.
LASTLY, HAPPY NEW YEAR, WEST TEXAS!
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
BY FRIDAY MORNING, TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED
TO BE TRANSITING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITHIN STRONG WNW FLOW
ALOFT. THE LEADING WAVE WILL BE EXITING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTAINING A COMPACT AND RELATIVELY DEEP
SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED RIVER. THE TRAILING WAVE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPEN A LEE TROUGH OVER NE NEW MEXICO.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY TO LOW-
END WINDY DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION FRIDAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL STAGNATE ONCE AGAIN AS
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER THAT IS SET TO STRETCH FROM
SATURDAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL AVERAGE 1-1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S, AND DESPITE THIS ABNORMAL WARMTH,
RECORD-BREAKING HEAT APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FAVORS THE RIDGE
DEAMPLIFYING AND MEAN TROUGHING DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY NEXT
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
VFR, WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WESTERLY GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED AT KLBB AND
KPVW AND WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CROSS WINDS ON RWY 17/35 AT
KLBB. THICK OVERCAST WILL CLEAR BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING, AND THE
PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09
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