312
FXUS64 KLUB 012321
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE
CAPROCK FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS. A LEE
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FA
INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS OUT OF
THE WEST AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS DRY AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A
WESTERLY SURFACE WIND. LOWERING OF DEW POINTS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WILL BE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY DEW POINTS ALREADY BEING IN THE MID THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS
ARIZONA. WHILE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CAPROCK FRIDAY, THE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HELP KEEP FIRE DANGER
FROM REACHING CRITICAL. SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS WARM, LOW 40S TO LOW 50S, AND FRIDAY'S HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND A
PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL HELP COOL SATURDAY'S HIGHS
INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
BENIGN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MID
WEEK. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL HELP KEEP SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL WITH DAILY HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE 60S AND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 90S
AND 40S. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER BAJA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN PATTERN EVOLUTION
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE ON A SOUTHERN
TRAJECTORY, MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY
EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW AND
MOVES IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
NEAR 30 KT ESPECIALLY AT KLBB. OVERNIGHT, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO BRING LLWS TO BOTH SITES, BUT THIS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNRISE. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WINDS WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND INTENSIFY ONCE AGAIN AT
KLBB AND KPVW AFTER 16Z. AT KCDS, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL TAF SITES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...30
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