613
FXUS64 KLUB 021133
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK TODAY.
- DRY AND WARM INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSITS OVER THE
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE UPPER SHORTWAVES WAS OBSERVED EXITING TO
OUR EAST INTO OKLAHOMA LATE THURSDAY EVENING, WITH THE SURFACE
RESPONSE TAKING THE FORM OF AN ELONGATED AND RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL KEEP WEST WINDS ON THE BREEZY SIDE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL IN TURN RESULT IN A VERY WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BY JANUARY STANDARDS AS FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.
THE SECOND OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES OBSERVED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE THURSDAY EVENING WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD, AND IS PROGGED TO EMERGE OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE BY SUNSET. THIS SECOND UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE A
STRONG SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LEE
TROUGH OVER NE NM AND THE ADJACENT TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH BOTH THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OVER N
TX AND DIURNAL MIXING INTO A 30-40 KT 700MB WIND MAX TO RESULT IN A
WINDY AND WARM DAY ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FOCUS OVER
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK, WHERE A PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM UNTIL 6 PM FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. OTHERWISE, THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A VERY WARM DAY, WITH THE RECORD
HIGH OF 77 DEGREES AT LUBBOCK LAST SET IN 2009 WITHIN REACH.
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY DRY BY WEST TX
STANDARDS, WINDS THIS STRONG WILL NEVERTHELESS RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTER
SUNSET, A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WITHIN THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY SNEAK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT THESE CURRENTLY LOOK LIKELY TO DIMINISH WHILE
STILL TO OUR NORTH, SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN BREEZY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CHILLIER (BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL) LOWS
EXPECTED HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE CWA
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL PEAK IN AMPLITUDE SATURDAY, AND WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT TENDENCIES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY, AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE RECOVERING FROM THE SLIGHT
MODIFICATION FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING HEIGHTS SHALLOW OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. HIGH-ALTITUDE CIRRUS ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN WILL OVERSPREAD W TX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS AN
ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED 300 MB JET STREAK NEAR 80 KT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AHEAD OF AN INTENSE,
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS. A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EJECT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
TRANSLATE THROUGH PHASING JET STREAKS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS,
AND WHICH WILL RESULT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN
CO AND WESTERN KS. WINDS WERE RAISED TO ALIGN WITH THE NBM 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR MONDAY, WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MEX/ECX/ECM
GUIDANCE, DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT AND THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE WESTERLY
WINDS MONDAY WILL AID IN MAXIMIZING THE EFFECTS OF ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION, WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC
COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES AMONG
THE GLOBAL NWP DATA ON TIMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CONSENSUS FOR THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE TO DEAMPLIFY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD
EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE NBM HAS GENERATED LOW POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN RAIN REMAINS LOW.
____________________________________________
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT LBB AND CDS FOR MONDAY, JANUARY 5TH, 2026:
LUBBOCK AIRPORT CHILDRESS AIRPORT
FORECAST RECORD FORECAST RECORD
MON 78 82 (1927) 80 82 (1994)
____________________________________________
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESUME GUSTY STATUS AT LBB AND PVW LATE
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KNOTS AT LBB BEFORE
TAPERING BY SUNSET.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ021-027-028-033-034-039-040.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93
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