913
FXUS64 KLUB 021731
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL, SATURDAY BEFORE
WARMING AGAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAPROCK THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. SUNNY SKIES AND WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING
HIGHS, AT LEAST FOR KLBB. THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH OF 77 DEGREES FOR
KLBB WAS LAST SET IN 2009. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR TODAY IS 76
DEGREES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER PERSISTS THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH BREEZY WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
THEY GET ANOTHER PUSH AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD
DEEPENS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS LOW WITH SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A DRY ATMOSPHERE, THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
WEAKENING WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLER NIGHT COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AS WINDS WEAKEN TONIGHT, THEY ARE EXPECT TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AS THE DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE SATURDAY, HOWEVER
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL AS RIDGING PUSHES IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HEIGHT AND THICKNESS INCREASES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
ON THE SURFACE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER CO. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE WARM AND DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. WEAK UPPER RIDGING THAT PUSHED OVERHEAD SATURDAY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WARMING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL (~20 DEGREES). BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LEE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
RECORD BREAKING HIGHS AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A SHIFT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BY MID-WEEK, HOWEVER DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
PUSH ONSHORE OVER SOCAL AND PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT ECMWF MODEL RUN HAS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION, BUT WILL PASS OVERHEAD LATE
WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERN PROGRESSION WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH CLIPPING OUR REGION THURSDAY. THIS UPPER
PATTERN WILL BRING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT IS LOW, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT VISBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST, HOWEVER,
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, LOW CIGS AND VISBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE KCDS TERMINAL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021-027-028-033-
034-039-040.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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