499
FXUS64 KLUB 030432
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1032 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
WINDS ARE STEADILY DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FA BY
EARLY MORNING AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY AND WILL COOL THIS MORNING'S
LOWS BY 10-15 DEGREES OVER FRIDAY MORNING, LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL COOL BY AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPS
DROP INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A RESULT FROM THE SURFACE HIGH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ON SUNDAY AND ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST WHICH CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND VEER
MORE DUE WESTERLY. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND BRING
POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CURRENTLY THE GFS SHOWS
THE LOW SOMEWHAT REPHASING WITH A MORE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO A STRONGER VORT MAX AND THUS
GREATER FORCING. ECMWF MAINTAINS IT AS ESSENTIALLY A SHORTWAVE AND
TRACKS IT TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION TO THE
EAST. BOTH RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES DO NOT REALLY RESOLVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AT ALL AND MAINTAIN BROAD TROUGHING. IN SHORT,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AND BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IS STILL THE BEST HEDGE. THE BROAD TROUGHING DOES LOOK TO PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS AND POSSIBLY BRINGING
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51
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