289
FXUS64 KLUB 031103
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
503 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
WINDS ARE STEADILY DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FA BY
EARLY MORNING AND WILL BRING A COLD FRONT IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY AND WILL COOL THIS MORNING'S
LOWS BY 10-15 DEGREES OVER FRIDAY MORNING, LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL COOL BY AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPS
DROP INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A RESULT FROM THE SURFACE HIGH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD BY THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ON SUNDAY AND ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST WHICH CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE AND VEER
MORE DUE WESTERLY. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND BRING
POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A CUTOFF LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CURRENTLY THE GFS SHOWS
THE LOW SOMEWHAT RE-PHASING WITH A MORE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO A STRONGER VORT MAX AND
THUS GREATER FORCING. ECMWF MAINTAINS IT AS ESSENTIALLY A
SHORTWAVE AND TRACKS IT TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA KEEPING ALL
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST. BOTH RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES DO NOT REALLY
RESOLVE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AT ALL AND MAINTAIN BROAD
TROUGHING. IN SHORT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AND
BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS STILL THE BEST HEDGE. THE BROAD
TROUGHING DOES LOOK TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND USHERING IN A
COOLER AIRMASS AND POSSIBLY BRINGING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
CONTINUED VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93
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