445
FXUS64 KLUB 031738
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
- SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY MAINLY SOUTHEAST
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS TRANSITIONING THE REGION TODAY WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS FROM
LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY
MID AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10KT, SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THAN
FRIDAY AND A LOT LESS WIND. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT INTO THE
MIDDLE TEENS SPEEDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS A WARMING
TREND BEGINS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
BY SUNDAY EVENING, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIVE TROUGH HUGGING THE WEST COAST. AS
STRONGER WINDS MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA, A DIGGING OF THE
TROUGH WEST OF OREGON IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM CUTS OFF INTO A
CLOSED LOW AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST MAKING ITS
WAY TO BAJA CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES MONDAY PASSING WELL NORTH OF US
ON TUESDAY. INTO THURSDAY, ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA WILL PHASE WITH THE BAJA LOW BRINGING INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO WEST TEXAS AS THE CORE OF THE LOW OPENS AND
EJECTS INTO WTX BY MID-DAY. RESULTINGLY, SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING WILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OFF THE
WEST COAST ALL THE WAY INTO ALASKA BY MID-WEEK. THE BROAD TROUGH
THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOME HINTS OF
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT TOWARD A NEGATIVE TILT CONFIGURATION. YET
ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SOME
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WHICH INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH DAYS.
OVERALL, THE NBM APPEARS TO BE A BIT ANEMIC ON THE WIND SPEEDS
TOWARD MID WEEK, BUT INDICATIONS FOR DECREASING TEMPERATURES AFTER
MONDAY SHOULD HELP EASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO SOME EXTENT IF THIS
PROVES VALID. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY THOUGH MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE PICTURE FRIDAY MORNING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS PER THE BLENDS. THE MJO HAS DEPICTED A VERY WEAK
SIGNAL AS OF LATE AND OFFERS NO INSIGHT AS TO HOW STRONG THE FRONT
NEXT WEEK MIGHT BE. AS SUCH, WE'LL CONTINUE TO ADVERT THE BLEND AND
AWAIT FURTHER CLARITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...01
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