012
FXUS64 KLUB 040444
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1044 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERHEAD
RIDGING WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH FLOW BECOMING
QUASI-ZONAL BY THE EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST AFTER SUNSET AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
SLIGHT RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH GENERALLY WEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-TO-
LATE WEEK. A UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SW PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THIS WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S AND EVEN LOW 80S OFF THE CAPROCK. POCKETS OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WHERE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN LOWEST. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLIGHTLY COOL, BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S.
A LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW PATTERN OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRACK SOUTHWARD. LATEST MODELS TAKE IT
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY, WITH IT NOT MAKING ITS EASTERLY
TURN UNTIL IT REACHES WELL INTO BAJA. WHILE IT MAY OR MAY NOT
COMPLETELY REPHASE WITH THE MAIN FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING,
SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE DEEPER, PARTICULARLY ON
THE GFS AND FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF ITS AXIS WOULD ALSO BE STRONGER IN
THIS SETUP. THIS WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, POTENTIALLY LASTING ALL DAY THURSDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN GFS BUT BOTH NOW SHOW PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NBM POPS HAVE AGAIN BEEN RETAINED AS THEY
HAVE LUCKILY NOT BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THE
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER IF THE MORE OPTIMISTIC PATTERN CONTINUES,
THESE WILL LIKELY INCREASE. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE USHERED IN BY NEXT WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES MAY
FINALLY RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51
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