987
FXUS64 KLUB 042302
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
502 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM COMPLETE WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS COVERING
MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS TROUGHING AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
INCREASE IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR MONDAY. FORECAST MIXING HEIGHTS
ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 3-4KFT WITH WINDS ONLY ABOUT 20KT OR SO AT
THIS LEVEL. MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS WILL BE DISPLACED WELL
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL ALSO BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA WITH
FORECAST HIGHS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE MID-WEEK AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA MID-WEEK, IT WILL STILL BRING STRONG LARGE
SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION. AT THE MOMENT, THIS LIFT LOOKS TO PEAK
AROUND THURSDAY MORNING BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE SLOWING DOWN OF THIS SYSTEM IN GUIDANCE, LIFT
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH DESCENT NOT SPREADING
OVERHEAD UNTIL LATE ON THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY, RETURN FLOW WILL BE NON-EXISTENT, THEREFORE, MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS THIS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THE
LOWEST 500MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB. SIGNIFICANT TOP DOWN MOISTENING WOULD HAVE TO
OCCUR TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHICH MAY ALSO DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW WITH
THE LACK OF RETURN FLOW. ANY THUNDER LOOKS TO BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. OVERALL,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT GIVEN THE ABOVE
PARAMETERS. COOLER WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WITH A
POTENTIAL SERIES OF COLD FRONTS FOLLOWING THURSDAY'S SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...51
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