896
FXUS64 KLUB 051123
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
523 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A BROAD LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL REACH THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE, UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL RESULT. VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS, ALTHOUGH SW WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS THE SEEMINGLY NEVER
ENDING STRETCH OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S UNDER
PARTLY-TO-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
FROM YESTERDAY, MODELS ARE GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL
RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BECOME
CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
AND TRACK SOUTHWARD, MAKING AN EASTERLY TURN OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA. MUCH OF THE BEST ASSOCIATED SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND FORCING DOWNSTREAM WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL IT RE-PHASES
WITH THE MAIN FLOW, WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM PROGRESSION THAN THE GFS AND
THEREFORE SHOW THE LARGEST SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SOONER
(EARLY THURSDAY MORNING VS THURSDAY AFTERNOON). IN ANY CASE,
CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY FUTURE CHANGES TO
HOW AND WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURES INTERACT. A FEW
SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER SKIES WILL CLEAR THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY BE USHERED IN WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY FALLING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR WITH W WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KNOTS TOWARD NOON AND LASTING
UNTIL SUNSET.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93
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