675
FXUS64 KLUB 121110
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
510 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REGULATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY, THEN AGAIN FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
NOT MUCH TO REPORT FOR THE SHORT TERM, WITH BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S, SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE UPTICK IN THICKNESS AND
HEIGHTS, WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTER SOUTH PLAINS
WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT STILL
CHILLY, IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S THANKS TO MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING
FROM CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
DRY AND QUIET IS THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PACKAGE EARLY THIS MORNING, AS TEMPERATURES REGULATE BETWEEN NEAR
NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BY
TUESDAY MORNING A REX BLOCK PATTERN IS DEPICTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE
CONUS AS AN H5 UPPER HIGH MOVES INTO THE PACNW, WHILE A CUTOFF LOW
TRANSITS THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY. OFF TO THE EAST, AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY, WHILE A
SHORTWAVE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS THE
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BIG COUNTRY STAYS TO OUR SOUTH TRACKING INTO THE
PINEY WOODS OF TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, PRECIPITATION LOOKS
SCARCE WITH NO POPS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE OF THE EXTENDED AT THIS
TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE START OF THE EXTENDED TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S, AS THICKNESS AND HEIGHTS SUBTLY INCREASE ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW PREVAILING. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
NEARLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS
TIME, MOST GUIDANCE HAS THIS FRONT TRACKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FA BY NOON, WHICH WOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THE COOLER
SIDE. AT THIS TIME, THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE POST-FRONTAL
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
NBM CONTINUES TO BE A BIT WARM, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S, COMPARED TO THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTING HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE FA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A BLEND OF NBM 75TH, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY TEMPERATURE CHANGES AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RUN
TO RUN DIFFERENCE AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER, ADJUSTMENTS TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IF THE NBM REMAINS ON THE
WARMER SIDE. WE THEN WARM BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S THURSDAY AS THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST EXTENDS FURTHER EAST, INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS
OUR AREA BRIEFLY. THANKFULLY BY FRIDAY A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MARCH THROUGH AS AN ADDITIONAL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST. REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT, MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
OVERALL TIMING, SO WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN WITH THE FASTER AND COOLER
SOLUTION PROVIDED THIS TIME BY THE NBM. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO EARLIER,
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS BECOME MORE
IN SYNC WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51
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