082
FXUS64 KLUB 131105
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
505 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 449 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY,
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY, BEHIND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER REMAINS THE THEME FOR TUESDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LOW OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SHIFTS ITS SIGHTS FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF STRONGER
NORTHERLY FLOW PRECEDING A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. THE SMATTERING OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL OVER
THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL DEPART THROUGH THE MORNING
LEADING TO FULL SUN ALONG WITH EVEN MILDER HIGHS. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE WILL VEER
LIGHT WINDS NNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING
OUR RECENT CHILLY STREAK OF LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S, LOW TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD ABOVE FREEZING FOR A CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS TICK HIGHER WITH FROPA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE FA FINDING ITSELF BENEATH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE
OFF TO OUR WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE
PACNW. AS A RESULT OF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN, NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION, THE MAIN FORECAST MESSAGE WILL BE THE
REGULATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
CONUS.
BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL BEGIN DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, SWINGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT
PUSHING INTO OUR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT,
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER FROM WHAT WE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE TUESDAY AS POST FRONTAL
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH. NBM
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER WARM GIVEN THE SCENARIO, SO OPTED TO BLEND IN
NBM 25TH TO ALIGN BETTER WITH COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH, GUSTING AROUND 30 TO 35
MPH, BEHIND THE FRONT AS HEIGHTS BECOME TIGHTLY PACKED AND THE H8
WIND MAXIMA ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SIMILAR TO
TEMPERATURES, NBM CONTINUES TO UNDER ESTIMATE WIND SPEEDS, THEREFORE
OPTED TO BLEND IN CONSMOS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS. THE COOLER
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, AS WINDS CALM AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR, MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES
JUMP BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S, ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
JANUARY STANDARDS AS THICKNESS AND HEIGHT VALUES SUBTLY INCREASES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST EXPANDS PARTIALLY EASTWARD. IN ADDITION
TO THE SURFACE HIGH SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION, INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE SECONDARY WAVE WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PROVINCES
FRIDAY, SENDING AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY MORNING. COMPARED TO THE FIRST FRONT, MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON
THE OVERALL TIMING OF THIS FRONT, ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
THE FROPA ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY. THEREFORE, WILL OPT FOR NO CHANGE
WITH NBM COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK DOWN THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH WILL
ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL ALOFT AS WHILE HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS
VALUES REMAIN STAGNANT. ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51
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