006
FXUS64 KLUB 140532
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- ONE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FOR
FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TO BOUNCE BETWEEN NEAR NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
MOST AREA TEMPS AT 1030 PM WERE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO THANKS TO A 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
DRAPED W-E ACROSS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO NEAR
WICHITA IS ON PACE TO ENTER OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES AROUND 1-2 AM
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SWIFT NNW FLOW. MODELS AND UPSTREAM
OBS INDICATE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND
THIS SHOULD BE DRIVEN NOT BY COLD NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS (TEMPS ARE MILD
FOR JANUARY ALL THE WAY TO THE DAKOTAS) BUT RATHER A JUMP IN
DEWPOINTS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS INTO THE 30S. HOWEVER,
THESE WINDS WILL FIND THEIR STRIDE BY LATE MORNING AS DEEPER MIXING
ENSUES AND SUPPORTS SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH - HIGHEST OFF THE CAPROCK UNDER A BROADER
FOOTPRINT OF 30+ MPH WINDS AT 850 MB. A LOWERING OF 850 MB TEMPS
FROM 14C ON MONDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 50S
ARE IN ORDER FOR MOST AREAS UNDER DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. EVEN AS
WINDS DECLINE TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A SURFACE HIGH AND CLEAR
SKIES, LOW TEMPS SHOULD FAIR AROUND NORMAL AS DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE
MID 20S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE BLOCKING PATTERN SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WILL DISMANTLE BY THE
START OF THE EXTENDED, AS THE CUTOFF LOW ABSORBS INTO THE MAIN FLOW
OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DOMINATING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
AS A RESULT OF THIS, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST CLOSER TO THE REGION.
DESPITE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVERHEAD, AS THE FA FINDS
ITSELF SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN PART TO THE FACT THAT
HEIGHTS ALONG WITH THICKNESS WILL INCREASE, AS SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED
FROM THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR WEST EXPANDS JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST INTO
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
NORTHEASTERN NM WILL AID IN SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTING WAA INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL ALSO HELP HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
SPEEDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL, AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES SLIGHTLY PACKED. THESE BREEZY AND WARMS SOUTHWEST WINDS,
COMBINED WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS WILL LEAD TO A FEW
LOCALIZED AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AS WE TURN TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
EAST CONTINUING TO DOMINATE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST. IN TURN, A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH
WILL HELP RETURN AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AND COOLER IN
THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO
CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, AS THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST DEPARTS
AND HEIGHTS INCREASE. OVERALL, A PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED IS EXPECTED
AS TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH WHILE WE REMAIN DRY WITH NO
POPS IN SIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES FOLLOWING FROPA FROM 07-09Z, BUT
THIS HAS SINCE TRENDED MORE MARGINAL SO THE EARLIER MENTION OF LLWS
HAS BEEN REMOVED. NORTHERLY GUSTS WILL RAMP UP BY LATE MORNING TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS AT ALL SITES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93
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