516
FXUS64 KLUB 142336
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- VERY WARM THURSDAY, BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
LATE MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A DEEPENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH AN EXPANSIVE
RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE OVER CA/NV. RELATIVELY DEEP DIURNAL MIXING
INTO THE RESULTING STRONG NNW FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WILL
RESULT IN A BREEZY REST OF THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVERHEAD AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET AND TURN MORE WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS RELATIVELY MILD CONSIDERING THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK
TO VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS WEST WINDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE
TO A COMPACT LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER NE NM. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON THURSDAY, WITH
SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LOOKING LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN THE WARM
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
BY FRIDAY, MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WELL-DEFINED REX
BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST WITH DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGHING PRESENT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS.
THE BLOCK ITSELF IS PROGGED TO DECAY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AND PERHAPS EVEN DEEPEN OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD. A STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE WITHIN
THE ALREADY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY DAY FRIDAY BEHIND AN EARLY-DAY COLD
FRONT, WITH SATURDAY ALSO LOOKING RATHER CHILLY WITH MODELS PLACING
A COOL ~1032MB SURFACE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER THE WEST TX REGION. LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED WITH DEEP TROUGHING PERSISTING ALOFT.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW MORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FORECAST ALSO
REMAINS DRY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NO DISTINCT SIGNALS FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR WITH GUSTY N WINDS DRAWING LOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR, THEN
BECOMING WSW OVERNIGHT AND BREEZY BY LATE MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93
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