044
FXUS64 KLUB 150533
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- BREEZY AND MILDER THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, COOLING US THROUGH SATURDAY.
- QUIET AND DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY'S COOLDOWN, THURSDAY PROMISES A REBOUND TO VERY
MILD HIGHS IN THE 70S COURTESY OF DRY AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. A
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WILL WORK INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY OF S TX BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH DRY NW
FLOW. LEE TROUGHING WILL EMERGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS RIDGE HELPING TO
SPUR BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY MIDDAY. VERY MILD 850 MB
TEMPS OF 14-16C WILL ADVECT OUT OF NM UNDER FULL SUNSHINE, SO HIGHS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE SOARING INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS.
BY THURSDAY EVENING, WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED IN THE TX
PANHANDLE PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW. AS THIS WAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL DIVE
TOWARD THE I20 CORRIDOR TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER PRE-DAWN COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE START OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DEEPENS WHILE EXPANDING WESTWARD IN
COVERAGE. AS A RESULT OF THIS, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND ASSOCIATE
RIDGE OVER THE PACNW WILL PUSH WEST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IN
TURN, NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS WE
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. BY THE START OF
THE EXTENDED, A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, ALLOWING FOR
A COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT, NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BECOME BREEZY AS HEIGHTS BECOME
TIGHTLY PACKED. WHICH COMBINED WITH THE CAA IN PLACE, SHOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL 15 TO 20 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY BACK IN
THE 50S AND 60S. COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, MODELS HAVE
TURNED TO SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE A CHILLY ONE AS AN ADDITIONAL
CLOSED LOW PINCHES OFF, DEEPENING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE. MODELS DEPICT THEN ANOTHER FRONT, BACKDOOR IN NATURE,
MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONTINUATION OF
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
CAA INTO THE FA, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA WILL HELP KEEP THE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
NBM SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF SKEPTICISM
REGARDING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN MODEL
DIFFERENCE. WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN NBM TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME AS
THE NAM AND MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS FAR TOO COOL GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
PREVAILS. THEREFORE, WE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE, LIKELY
LEADING TO A FEW ADDITIONAL FRONTS AS WE ENTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
GIVEN WE HAVE BEEN RATHER WARM FOR JANUARY STANDARDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR SATURDAY IF MODELS COME TO FRUITION WITH THE
CHILLY AFTERNOON HIGHS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93
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